My previous prediction of an easing out of winter was wrong. We are back to serious cold. But on the up-side, the Great Lakes are once again making ice. Oddly, in mid January this year the ice cover was just about the same as last year's, even with its record cold. Since last month there's been a pause. But now, with the current cold wave, the water is freezing fast. In fact, as of now, both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are more frozen than they were last year. What has happened, I believe, is that the dip of the vortex has shifted 200 or so miles east, so that while Superior has not been quite as chilly, Erie and Ontario have been colder.

This graph compares this year with last year (the record year) up until mid January.

Interestingly, it is not just temperature that affects ice cover; but also wind. The spikes on this graph occur during times of cold and calm, while the troughs occur when it is windy and the ice gets blown away. Of further interest is the fact that the down-slope of the 2014 graph is much smoother then the up-slope. This is because melting is much easier and smoother than freezing. Think of popping a Frango mint and how easy melting can be.

Actually, I could use a Frango, or, even better, warmer temperatures, right about now.